Al Gore’s Quixotic Quest
Al Gore’s quixotic quest
If Al Gore wants to do something about global warming he should quit talking about it. I am not saying that global warming is fiction — it’s real enough and deadly serious — but the remedy appears to be worse than the problem in many people’s minds. Their natural reaction, as Thomas Friedman has observed in “Hot, Flat, and Crowded,” is denial.
The shorthand that has evolved, according to Friedman, is that when the crisis hits, IBG/YBG or “I’ll be gone and you’ll be gone” — so let someone else worry about it. That’s not terribly comforting especially when you consider that the people we leave this problem to will be responsible for our care in old age. But no matter, that’s the prevailing crowd logic.
Averting global warming’s worst effects is a Herculean task that’s guaranteed to cost trillions. The anti-carbon crowd’s big stick in all this is some form of carbon tax, a fine imposed for using carbon-based fuels to run our lives. It doesn’t matter that the logic of the tax is to make alternatives cost competitive with subsidized carbon fuels so that our civilization can wean itself away from polluting. The approach feels punitive.
Gore and the global warming crowd would be smart to abandon the frontal assault that a carbon tax represents. It’s not a question of whether of not they are right, it’s a question of implementation. As long as weather patterns hold up reasonably well — and deniers can conflate weather with climate — the two sides are at a standstill.
A better approach might be to extol the profitability of changing our energy paradigm. But the optimal approach would be to combine profit with the notion that the earth’s endowment of fossil fuels, while large, is running out.
It’s called Peak Oil and simply stated it means that our ability to extract ever-larger quantities to meet growing demand is waning. Experts say there are about one trillion barrels of crude oil left in the ground and at current use rates it’s enough to last another thirty years. And it’s not just oil that should concern us. There are peak coal, peak natural gas and even peak uranium issues to deal with.
Of course, current use rates can be misleading. The emerging world contains billions of people who want a middle class lifestyle replete with cars, appliances and better diets. Without much trouble increasing demand for fossil fuels that are in short supply will drive up prices. Four dollars per gallon will look cheap by 2015 when China will be putting fifteen million cars on its roads annually. No one seems to be taking the problem of peak oil seriously but maybe we should.
All of this and much more is what ought to drive the debate about seeking alternatives to carbon-based energy. Peak oil is the obverse of global warming but it is the side of the coin where the profit is and this is all the incentive anyone needs to develop a carbon-free energy paradigm.
An entire carbon-free energy infrastructure must be built. More than 200 million cars on America’s roads today must be replaced with electric versions along with charging stations for their batteries. High speed rail spanning the continent and light rail uniting cities and suburbs have to be built and much more. Buildings must be made more efficient. There is not that much time left before we begin to feel the effects of inaction in the form of ever-higher fuel prices.
Unlike global warming, peak oil cannot be ignored or explained away and its effects are already upon us. Mr. Gore should use his bully pulpit to educate us about the dangers peak oil poses for our civilization; an educated and activated marketplace will do the rest. Averting a peak oil catastrophe is not as noble as cleaning up the environment because it’s the right thing to do. But it will achieve the desired results and the benefits will be enormous.
